10 Sept · 10:10 MESZ · 🏸 Belgian Int. WomenLow · Slight Edge
KG
🇬🇧Kirsty Gilmour
ELO 1535
FormLLLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Gilmour
NW
🇳🇱Novi Wieland
ELO 1524
FormWWLWW
53%
47%
Fair odds · Gilmour
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 92% · 1.09· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Game score (games)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~85 pts
2-0
39%
0-2
33%
2-1
14%
1-2
14%
Elo Gap+11
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.