11 Sept · 19:45 MESZ · 🏸 Belgian Int.Medium · Model Lean
DH
🇩🇰Ditlev Jaeger Holm
ELO 1613
FormWWWLW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Holm
KR
🇩🇰Karan Rajan Rajarajan
ELO 1587
FormWWWWW
57%
43%
Fair odds · Holm
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 77% · 1.31· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Game score (games)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~85 pts
2-0
42%
0-2
30%
2-1
15%
1-2
13%
Elo Gap+26
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.