17 Sept · 09:00 MESZ · 🏸 Polish Int. WomenMedium · Model Lean
GS
🇬🇷Grammatoula Sotiriou
ELO 1525
FormLWLWL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Sotiriou
DP
🇨🇭Dounia Pelupessy
ELO 1502
FormLLLWW
56%
44%
Fair odds · Sotiriou
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 12% · 8.53· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Game score (games)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~85 pts
2-0
41%
0-2
30%
2-1
15%
1-2
13%
Elo Gap+23
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.