17 Sept · 09:00 MESZ · 🏸 Polish Int. WomenMedium · Model Lean
SL
🇺🇦Sofiia Lavrova
ELO 1494
FormLLWLL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Lavrova
AW
🇵🇱Aleksandra Weslawowicz
ELO 1475
FormLLLWW
55%
45%
Fair odds · Lavrova
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 94% · 1.07· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Game score (games)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~85 pts
2-0
40%
0-2
31%
2-1
15%
1-2
14%
Elo Gap+19
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.