17 Sept · 09:00 MESZ · 🏸 Polish Int. WomenMedium · Model Lean
SG
🇱🇹Samanta Golubickaite
ELO 1493
FormLL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Golubickaite
WG
🇵🇱Weronika Gorniak
ELO 1471
FormLLLL
56%
44%
Fair odds · Golubickaite
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 69% · 1.45· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Game score (games)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~85 pts
2-0
41%
0-2
31%
2-1
15%
1-2
13%
Elo Gap+22
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.