17 Sept · 17:40 MESZ · 🏸 Polish Int.Medium · Model Lean
JR
🇬🇧James Robertson
ELO 1461
FormLLLLL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Szymanowski
MS
🇵🇱Mikolaj Szymanowski
ELO 1491
FormLLLWL
41%
59%
Fair odds · Szymanowski
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 84% · 1.19· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Game score (games)Fav −1.5 43%Total ~85 pts
0-2
43%
2-0
29%
1-2
16%
2-1
13%
Elo Gap+30
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.