17 Sept · 16:30 MESZ · 🏸 Polish Int. WomenMedium · Model Lean
CW
🇸🇪Cecilia Wang
ELO 1449
FormLWLLL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Gorniak
WG
🇵🇱Weronika Gorniak
ELO 1471
FormLLLL
44%
56%
Fair odds · Gorniak
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 28% · 3.57· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Game score (games)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~85 pts
0-2
41%
2-0
30%
1-2
15%
2-1
13%
Elo Gap+22
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.