17 Sept · 16:30 MESZ · 🏸 Polish Int. WomenLow · Slight Edge
GS
🇬🇷Grammatoula Sotiriou
ELO 1525
FormLWLWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Koriagina
MK
🇺🇦Maria Koriagina
ELO 1538
FormWWLWL
46%
54%
Fair odds · Koriagina
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Game score (games)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~85 pts
0-2
39%
2-0
32%
1-2
15%
2-1
14%
Elo Gap+13
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.