17 Sept · 18:15 MESZ · 🏸 Polish Int. WomenMedium · Model Lean
NS
🇱🇹Nomeda Seniunaite
ELO 1519
FormWW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Seniunaite
UV
🇵🇱Ulyana Volskaya
ELO 1486
FormLWWLL
59%
41%
Fair odds · Seniunaite
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 6% · 15.85· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Game score (games)Fav −1.5 43%Total ~85 pts
2-0
43%
0-2
28%
2-1
16%
1-2
12%
Elo Gap+33
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.