17 Sept · 18:50 MESZ · 🏸 Polish Int. WomenMedium · Model Lean
WK
🇵🇱Wiktoria Kaletka
ELO 1482
FormWWLLW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Kaletka
SN
🇮🇪Sophia Noble
ELO 1453
FormLWLWL
58%
42%
Fair odds · Kaletka
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 9% · 10.71· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Game score (games)Fav −1.5 43%Total ~85 pts
2-0
43%
0-2
29%
2-1
16%
1-2
13%
Elo Gap+29
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.