18 Sept · 13:05 MESZ · 🏸 Polish Int. WomenLow · Coin Flip
NN
🇫🇮Nella Nyqvist
ELO 1583
FormWWLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Nyqvist
PC
🇹🇼Pin Hsuan Chiang
ELO 1580
FormWWWLW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Nyqvist
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 63% · 1.60· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Game score (games)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~85 pts
2-0
37%
0-2
34%
1-2
15%
2-1
14%
Elo Gap+3
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.