18 Sept · 14:50 MESZ · 🏸 Polish Int. WomenLow · Coin Flip
UV
🇵🇱Ulyana Volskaya
ELO 1498
FormWLWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Saarnivaara
PS
🇫🇮Petra Saarnivaara
ELO 1500
FormWLWLL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Saarnivaara
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 42% · 2.36· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Game score (games)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~85 pts
0-2
37%
2-0
34%
2-1
15%
1-2
14%
Elo Gap+2
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.