20 Sept · 10:40 MESZ · 🏸 Polish Int.Low · Slight Edge
PC
🇰🇷Pyeong Gang Choi
ELO 1617
FormWWWWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Choi
GT
🇮🇹Giovanni Toti
ELO 1602
FormWWWWW
54%
46%
Fair odds · Choi
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Game score (games)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~85 pts
2-0
40%
0-2
32%
2-1
15%
1-2
14%
Elo Gap+15
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.