25 Sept · 14:30 MESZ · 🏸 South American GamesLow · Slight Edge
JM
🇧🇷Jonathan Matias
ELO 1525
FormWLLLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Matias
NO
🇦🇷Nicolas Oliva
ELO 1509
FormWWWLL
54%
46%
Fair odds · Matias
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 90% · 1.12· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Game score (games)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~85 pts
2-0
40%
0-2
32%
2-1
15%
1-2
14%
Elo Gap+16
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.