26 Sept · 14:30 MESZ · 🏸 South American GamesMedium · Model Lean
JM
🇧🇷Jonathan Matias
ELO 1533
FormWWLLL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Matias
DO
🇧🇷Donnians Oliveira
ELO 1507
FormLLWWW
57%
43%
Fair odds · Matias
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 84% · 1.19· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Game score (games)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~85 pts
2-0
42%
0-2
30%
2-1
16%
1-2
13%
Elo Gap+26
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.