28 Sept · 04:00 MESZ · 🏸 Asian Games WomenLow · Coin Flip
AY
🇯🇵Akane Yamaguchi
ELO 1821
FormWLWWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Yamaguchi
ZW
🇨🇳Zhiyi Wang
ELO 1820
FormLWWWW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Yamaguchi
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 42% · 2.37· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Game score (games)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~85 pts
2-0
37%
0-2
35%
1-2
15%
2-1
14%
Elo Gap+1
H2H2-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.