30 Sept · 14:20 MESZ · 🏸 Dutch Open QualLow · Coin Flip
SF
🇳🇱Sean Fanseda
ELO 1470
FormLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Fanseda
LD
🇲🇺Lucas Douce
ELO 1466
FormLLWLL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Fanseda
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 13% · 7.46· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Game score (games)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~85 pts
2-0
37%
0-2
34%
1-2
15%
2-1
14%
Elo Gap+4
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.