30 Sept · 13:45 MESZ · 🏸 Dutch Open Women QualMedium · Model Lean
SN
🇳🇱Stefanie Nijsse
ELO 1477
FormLLW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Dauphinais
LD
🇧🇪Lea Dauphinais
ELO 1499
FormLLWW
44%
56%
Fair odds · Dauphinais
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 69% · 1.45· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Game score (games)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~85 pts
0-2
41%
2-0
31%
1-2
15%
2-1
13%
Elo Gap+22
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.