1 Oct · 09:00 MESZ · 🏸 Dutch OpenMedium · Model Lean
MS
🇵🇱Mikolaj Szymanowski
ELO 1490
FormLWLLL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Dwicahyo
AD
🇦🇿Ade Resky Dwicahyo
ELO 1508
FormLLWLL
45%
55%
Fair odds · Dwicahyo
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 69% · 1.45· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Game score (games)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~85 pts
0-2
40%
2-0
31%
1-2
15%
2-1
14%
Elo Gap+18
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.