1 Oct · 12:35 MESZ · 🏸 Dutch OpenMedium · Model Lean
DP
🇱🇹Domas Paksys
ELO 1516
FormWWLW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Roy
ER
🇫🇷Enogat Roy
ELO 1540
FormLWLLL
43%
57%
Fair odds · Roy
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 91% · 1.10· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Game score (games)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~85 pts
0-2
42%
2-0
30%
1-2
15%
2-1
13%
Elo Gap+24
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.