2 Oct · 14:25 MESZ · 🏸 Dutch Open WomenMedium · Model Lean
FW
🇳🇱Flora Wang
ELO 1556
FormWWLWL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Wang
WZ
🇨🇦Wen Yu Zhang
ELO 1523
FormWLWWW
59%
41%
Fair odds · Wang
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 16% · 6.40· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Game score (games)Fav −1.5 43%Total ~85 pts
2-0
43%
0-2
28%
2-1
16%
1-2
12%
Elo Gap+33
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.