2 Oct · 10:40 MESZ · 🏸 Bulgarian Int QualLow · Slight Edge
MG
🇮🇱Maxim Grinblat
ELO 1470
FormLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Barbieri
YB
🇫🇷Yohan Barbieri
ELO 1485
FormLWLLW
46%
54%
Fair odds · Barbieri
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 89% · 1.12· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Game score (games)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~85 pts
0-2
39%
2-0
32%
1-2
15%
2-1
14%
Elo Gap+15
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.