6 Oct · 07:00 MESZ · 🏸 Arctic Open QualMedium · Model Lean
TM
🇮🇳Tharun Mannepalli
ELO 1506
FormLLWWW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Carraggi
JC
🇧🇪Julien Carraggi
ELO 1526
FormLWWWW
44%
56%
Fair odds · Carraggi
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Game score (games)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~85 pts
0-2
41%
2-0
31%
1-2
15%
2-1
13%
Elo Gap+20
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.