6 Oct · 08:40 MESZ · 🏸 Arctic Open QualMedium · Model Lean
KK
🇫🇮Kalle Koljonen
ELO 1486
FormLWWWW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Lee
ZL
🇲🇾Zii Jia Lee
ELO 1516
FormLLLLL
42%
58%
Fair odds · Lee
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 79% · 1.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Game score (games)Fav −1.5 43%Total ~85 pts
0-2
43%
2-0
29%
1-2
16%
2-1
13%
Elo Gap+30
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.