9 Oct · 08:50 MESZ · 🏸 Turkiye Int.Medium · Model Lean
EL
🇹🇷Emre Lale
ELO 1526
FormWWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Lale
AD
🇦🇿Ade Resky Dwicahyo
ELO 1510
FormLWLLW
55%
45%
Fair odds · Lale
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 34% · 2.96· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Game score (games)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~85 pts
2-0
40%
0-2
32%
2-1
15%
1-2
14%
Elo Gap+16
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.