15 Oct · 10:10 MESZ · 🏸 Czech Open QualMedium · Model Lean
PZ
🇨🇭Patrick Zbinden
ELO 1454
FormLLLLL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Tvrdik
LT
🇨🇿Lukas Tvrdik
ELO 1480
FormL
43%
57%
Fair odds · Tvrdik
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 5% · 21.98· vig 5%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Game score (games)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~85 pts
0-2
42%
2-0
30%
1-2
15%
2-1
13%
Elo Gap+26
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.