17 Oct · 11:10 MESZ · 🏸 Czech OpenMedium · Model Lean
WB
🇩🇰William Bogebjerg
ELO 1624
FormWWLWW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Dubovenko
DD
🇮🇱Daniil Dubovenko
ELO 1647
FormWWLLW
43%
57%
Fair odds · Dubovenko
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Game score (games)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~85 pts
0-2
41%
2-0
30%
1-2
15%
2-1
13%
Elo Gap+23
H2H1-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.