23 Oct · 08:50 MESZ · 🏸 Indonesia Masters WomenMedium · Model Lean
NS
🇯🇵Nodoka Sunakawa
ELO 1545
FormWWLWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Pratiwi
NP
🇮🇩Ni K D Amartya Pratiwi
ELO 1563
FormWWLLW
45%
55%
Fair odds · Pratiwi
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Game score (games)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~85 pts
0-2
40%
2-0
31%
1-2
15%
2-1
14%
Elo Gap+18
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.