29 Oct · 11:00 MEZ · 🏸 Hungarian Int. WomenLow · Slight Edge
HP
🇧🇬Hristomira Popovska
ELO 1489
FormLLLWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Noble
SN
🇮🇪Sophia Noble
ELO 1499
FormLWWWW
47%
53%
Fair odds · Noble
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Game score (games)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~85 pts
0-2
39%
2-0
33%
2-1
14%
1-2
14%
Elo Gap+10
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.