28 Oct · 09:50 MEZ · 🏸 Hungarian Int.Medium · Model Lean
AS
🇸🇰Andrej Suchy
ELO 1493
FormLLLWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Melleri
AM
🇫🇮Alvar Melleri
ELO 1510
FormLWWLL
45%
55%
Fair odds · Melleri
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 66% · 1.52· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Game score (games)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~85 pts
0-2
40%
2-0
31%
1-2
15%
2-1
14%
Elo Gap+17
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.