28 Oct · 17:25 MEZ · 🏸 Hungarian Int. WomenLow · Slight Edge
KS
🇱🇺Kim Schmidt
ELO 1438
FormLLLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Arvidsson
SA
🇸🇪Selma Arvidsson
ELO 1447
FormLLWLL
47%
53%
Fair odds · Arvidsson
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 63% · 1.60· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Game score (games)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~85 pts
0-2
38%
2-0
33%
2-1
14%
1-2
14%
Elo Gap+9
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.