30 Oct · 11:00 MEZ · 🏸 Hungarian Int. WomenMedium · Model Lean
HP
🇧🇬Hristomira Popovska
ELO 1489
FormLLLWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Ginga
VG
🇲🇩Vlada Ginga
ELO 1506
FormLLWWL
45%
55%
Fair odds · Ginga
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 36% · 2.81· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Game score (games)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~85 pts
0-2
40%
2-0
31%
1-2
15%
2-1
14%
Elo Gap+17
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.