4 Nov · 02:00 MEZ · 🏸 Korea OpenMedium · Model Lean
TW
🇹🇼Tzu Wei Wang
ELO 1500
FormLLWWW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Carraggi
JC
🇧🇪Julien Carraggi
ELO 1522
FormLWWLL
44%
56%
Fair odds · Carraggi
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 31% · 3.20· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Game score (games)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~85 pts
0-2
41%
2-0
30%
1-2
15%
2-1
13%
Elo Gap+22
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.