10 Nov · 02:00 MEZ · 🏸 Japan Masters Women QualMedium · Model Lean
NM
🇯🇵Niina Matsuta
ELO 1497
FormLLW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Matsuta
YK
🇺🇦Yevheniia Kantemyr
ELO 1477
FormLLLLW
56%
44%
Fair odds · Matsuta
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 79% · 1.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Game score (games)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~85 pts
2-0
41%
0-2
31%
2-1
15%
1-2
13%
Elo Gap+20
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.