10 Nov · 02:00 MEZ · 🏸 Japan Masters QualLow · Slight Edge
MK
🇯🇵Minoru Koga
ELO 1593
FormLLLWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Koga
ZL
🇲🇾Zii Jia Lee
ELO 1578
FormLLWLW
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Lee
Fair odds · Koga
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 27% · 3.72· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Game score (games)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~85 pts
2-0
40%
0-2
32%
2-1
15%
1-2
14%
Elo Gap+15
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.