11 Nov · 02:00 MEZ · 🏸 Japan Masters WomenMedium · Model Lean
KL
🇲🇾Karupathevan Letshanaa
ELO 1496
FormLLWLL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Letshanaa
NN
🇯🇵Natsuki Nidaira
ELO 1477
FormLLLLL
55%
45%
Fair odds · Letshanaa
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 29% · 3.44· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Game score (games)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~85 pts
2-0
40%
0-2
31%
2-1
15%
1-2
14%
Elo Gap+19
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.