11 Nov · 02:00 MEZ · 🏸 Japan Masters WomenLow · Coin Flip
KN
🇧🇬Kaloyana Nalbantova
ELO 1615
FormLLWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Nalbantova
ML
🇨🇦Michelle Li
ELO 1613
FormLLLWW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Nalbantova
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 34% · 2.96· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Game score (games)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~85 pts
2-0
37%
0-2
34%
1-2
15%
2-1
14%
Elo Gap+2
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.