11 Nov · 02:00 MEZ · 🏸 Japan MastersMedium · Model Lean
NN
🇮🇪Nhat Nguyen
ELO 1510
FormLLLLW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Nguyen
KN
🇯🇵Kenta Nishimoto
ELO 1494
FormLLLLL
55%
45%
Fair odds · Nguyen
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Game score (games)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~85 pts
2-0
40%
0-2
32%
2-1
15%
1-2
14%
Elo Gap+16
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.