11 Nov · 02:00 MEZ · 🏸 Japan MastersLow · Coin Flip
VL
🇨🇦Victor Lai
ELO 1711
FormWWWWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Lai
YO
🇯🇵Yudai Okimoto
ELO 1709
FormLWWWL
50%
50%
Fair odds · Lai
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 75% · 1.33· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Game score (games)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~85 pts
2-0
37%
0-2
35%
1-2
15%
2-1
14%
Elo Gap+2
H2H1-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.