12 Nov · 10:00 MEZ · 🏸 Irish OpenMedium · Model Lean
NH
🇳🇱Noah Haase
ELO 1565
FormLLWLW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Haase
JN
🇨🇦Josh Nguyen
ELO 1543
FormLWLWL
56%
44%
Fair odds · Haase
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 29% · 3.44· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Game score (games)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~85 pts
2-0
41%
0-2
30%
2-1
15%
1-2
13%
Elo Gap+22
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.