11 Nov · 16:10 MEZ · 🏸 Irish Open Women QualMedium · Model Lean
AS
🇪🇸Ania Setien
ELO 1476
FormWL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Choi
GC
🏸Greta Choi
ELO 1500
43%
57%
Fair odds · Choi
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 6% · 17.92· vig 5%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Game score (games)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~85 pts
0-2
42%
2-0
30%
1-2
15%
2-1
13%
Elo Gap+24
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.