26 Jun · 16:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JM
🇨🇿Jiri Motak
ELO 1351
FormWWLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Proksa
MP
🇨🇿Marcel Proksa
ELO 1400
FormLWWLL
47%
53%
Fair odds · Proksa
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 33%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
2-3
19%
3-2
18%
3-1
18%
0-3
14%
Elo Gap+49
H2H3-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.