26 Jun · 10:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KD
🇨🇿Kyryl Darin
ELO 1462
FormLLLWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Bresky
JB
🇨🇿Jaroslav Bresky
ELO 1511
FormWLWLL
47%
53%
🌟Darin stays under total as underdog 80% (20)
Fair odds · Bresky
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 69% · 1.45· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 33%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
2-3
19%
3-2
18%
3-1
18%
0-3
14%
Elo Gap+49
H2H2-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.