26 Jun · 14:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
TD
🇨🇿Tomas Dousek
ELO 1608
FormLWLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Dousek
MV
🇨🇿Michal Vavrecka
ELO 1565
FormLLLLL
52%
48%
Fair odds · Dousek
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 33%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
18%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+43
H2H9-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.