26 Jun · 21:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MH
🇨🇿Marek Holub
ELO 1509
FormWWLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Holub
MC
🇨🇿Michal Chalupa
ELO 1498
FormLWLLL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Holub
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 45% · 2.24· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 32%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
3-2
19%
2-3
19%
1-3
19%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+11
H2H25-30
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.