26 Jun · 08:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MS
🇨🇿Martin Stefek
ELO 1396
FormWWLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Stefek
J1
🇨🇿Jaroslav Strnad 1964
ELO 1373
FormLWWLL
51%
49%
🌟1964 stays under total as underdog 69% (13)
Fair odds · Stefek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 32%Total ~78 pts
3-1
19%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
18%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+23
H2H32-12
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.