26 Jun · 10:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
OP
🇨🇿Ondrej Paril
ELO 1645
FormWWWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Paril
PW
🇨🇿Pavel Wawrosz
ELO 1627
FormWWWLW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Paril
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 32%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
3-2
19%
2-3
19%
1-3
18%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+18
H2H12-12
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.