26 Jun · 18:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DH
🇨🇿Denis Hofman
ELO 1561
FormWWLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Sychra
MS
🇨🇿Martin Sychra
ELO 1598
FormLWLLL
48%
52%
Fair odds · Sychra
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 33%Total ~80 pts
1-3
20%
2-3
19%
3-2
18%
3-1
18%
0-3
13%
Elo Gap+37
H2H15-20
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.