27 Jun · 12:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AB
🇨🇿Ales Bayer
ELO 1562
FormLLWLL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Regner
MR
🇨🇿Michal Regner
ELO 1563
FormLWWLW
50%
50%
🌟Bayer goes over total as underdog 65% (17)
Fair odds · Regner
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 31%Total ~78 pts
1-3
19%
2-3
19%
3-2
19%
3-1
19%
0-3
13%
Elo Gap+1
H2H21-41
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.