27 Jun · 12:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DB
🇨🇿David Barton
ELO 1475
FormWWLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Barton
JD
🇨🇿Julius Didi
ELO 1444
FormLLLLW
52%
48%
Fair odds · Barton
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 69% · 1.45· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 33%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
18%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+31
H2H3-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.